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POLITICS/POLICY

POLITICS/POLICY

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Everything is espionage: Things I learned researching Assange

(espissange? asspionage?)

Who is this Julian Assange guy? Is he good or bad? Did he do espionage? Why is the US so obsessed with getting its hands on him? At dynomight.net we don't like to answer questions. Instead, we prefer to replace...

The anxiety of the moderate

Wouldn't it be quite a coincidence for this to be the moment public opinion got it right?

It's tempting for the moderate to strut. Isn't it enlightened to see truth in both sides? To calmly rise above the squabbling? But there's a strong argument against moderation: Public opinion has been evolving for hundreds of years. Many things...

What I learned trying to classify abortion access across the rich world

Rich countries are not monolithic. However, outside the US and a few microstates, they vary in a limited range.

With abortion in flux in the US, I realized I didn’t have a clear picture of how things looked in the rest of the rich world. When I searched, I found lots of maps, like the following from Politico and...

Statistical nihilism and culture-war island hopping

If culture war is intractable, what should we do instead?

The Guadalcanal campaign was the first major offensive operation by the Allies in the Pacific theater of World War 2. This nightmarish battle ran for six months and—while an Allied victory—involved losses so high the US Navy refused to release...

Political polarization is partly a sample bias illusion

How polarized are we? An overview of what people of different political parties, education levels, races, and political engagement think about politics.

We’re here on Earth for such a short time. So, I often wonder—what do people spend their days thinking about? Judging from the ever-increasing amount of screaming everywhere, the answer would seem to be politics. But is that right? What...

The irrelevance of test scores is greatly exaggerated

Some claims that test scores don't predict college success don't add up.

Here are some claims about how grades (GPA) and test scores (ACT) predict success in college. "In a study released this month, the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research found—after surveying more than 55,000 public high school graduates—that grade...

What happens if you don't fill out that ethnicity form?

Why do you have to fill out an ethnicity form to get a job in the US? What happens if you refuse?

If you ever joined a large organization in the US, you filled out an ethnicity form. Here’s a typical one:

Why fairness is basically unobservable

Why it's basically impossible to determine fairness from observational data.

We want to know if things are fair. Do some groups of people tend to get a raw deal in company hiring or university admissions or court sentences?

Policy proposals and what we don't know about them

There's many suggested policies to address police violence. What do we know about if they actually work?

You can’t measure police bias using simple population ratios. A better idea is to check if police behave differently when it’s dark, but this doesn’t give any firm conclusions either. What else can we do?

The veil of darkness

Explores some natural experiments that try to measure police violence.

Measuring police bias using simple ratios doesn’t work. You can never cleanly separate the impact of race from other associated factors.

Your ratios don't prove what you think they prove

Why trying to measure police violence though ratios is totally and utterly meaningless.

Watching people discuss police bias statistics, I despair. Some claim simple calculations prove police bias, some claim the opposite. Who is right?